NBA Finals Preview: The USS Stan Van vs. The Lakeshow
June 1st 2009 06:19
Can Superman upset The Black Mamba for Orlando's first title?
Well ladies and gentlemen, it has come to this, David Stern's greatest nightmare. The Orlando Magic against the Los Angeles Lakers for the NBA Championship.
I'm sure Stern and Nike are just distraught over this sequence of events. Stern lost massive TV ratings with the Cleveland LeBron's exit and Nike can no longer run those hilarious puppet commercials without looking silly. There's a ton of money that was lost in an instant Saturday night. I suppose that puts to bed any thoughts of a conspiracy that would place Kobe and LeBron in the Finals.
It's easy to take a look at this series and quickly dismiss the Magic in a short series. The Magic are in the Eastern Conference, a conference that is not exactly seen as producing many powerhouses (despite having three of the last five champions: Detroit, Miami and Boston.), while the Lakers come out of the West with the second best record in the league and last year's MVP in Kobe Bryant, who has been nothing short of a monster this postseason.
My first reaction after the end of Saturday night's game was simple: Lakers in six. However, after doing some thinking on the series, I can't help but have this nagging feeling that the Magic can and will win this series. Call me crazy, call me delusional, but I feel like the USS Stan Van and its Three Point Cannons might be able to get the job done.
Let's take a look at the matchups in this series and see how it all breaks down, shall we?
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Point Guard: Derek Fisher vs. Rafer Alston/Jameer Nelson???
With today's news that Magic point guard Jameer Nelson, who was declared out for the season in February with a torn labrum in his shoulder, is being re-evaluated for a possible return for the Finals, this matchup just got real interesting.
Nelson absolutely dominated the Lakers in their two meetings this season. Nelson averaged 27.5 points 6.5 assists and 5.5 rebounds against the Lakers this season and if he's able to give anything at all, I'd assume that it would be in a bench role. However, I don't expect to see Nelson added to the playoff roster in the coming days. Orlando should not throw its All-Star point guard out there when it's not necessary to do so. Rafer Alston is more than capable of being able to do the job for Orlando.
Alston is averaging 12.7 points and 4.4 assists for the postseason and has been a steadying force for Orlando. Alston will need to be big for the Magic if they're going to win this series. He's much quicker than the older Derek Fisher, who has struggled at times throughout the playoffs. The veteran Fisher is shooting roughly 36 percent from the field in this year's playoffs and has been a liability for the Lakers. Los Angeles will need much more from D-Fish if they're going to capture the title.
Advantage: Orlando
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Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Courtney Lee
The only advice I can give to Mr. Lee as he prepares to guard Kobe in this series is rather simple: Pray...a lot.
There has not been a man alive that has been able to slow down Bryant this postseason. Kobe's averaging 29.6 points a game in the playoffs, second only to LeBron James. Bryant has established himself as the Mariano Rivera of the NBA over the past two months, just closing out games by sheer force of will. There is no better fourth quarter player in the league and the Magic have their hands full trying to slow him down.
I expect that Lee and Mickael Pietrus will share the defensive duties but don't be shocked to see small forward Hedo Turkoglu try and guard Bryant at times. Either way, no matter how you break it down, this is not a matchup that favors the Magic. Kobe is going to get his early and often and this series.
Advantage: Los Angeles
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Small Forward: Trevor Ariza vs. Hedo Turkoglu
This is one of the most important matchups in the entire series. Turkoglu is going to have to be huge for Orlando to win this series. Everyone in the world knows that the USS Stan Van runs on three point power and Turkoglu is a major part of that propulsion.
Turkoglu has to hit his three point looks to help spread out the Laker defense and free up Dwight Howard in the middle. If not, the Lakers are going to be able to double up on Howard and slow down Orlando.
Ariza, on the other hand, has been solid for the Lakers this postseason. He's averaging 11.4 points per game, up from 8.9 during the regular season. Ariza is also a three point threat, shooting 50 percent from beyond the arc and will have to hit the timely shots he hit earlier in the playoffs because as Cleveland proved, one superstar cannot get it done alone.
Regardless, Turkoglu is taller and bigger than Ariza and should be able to win this matchup.
Advantage: Orlando
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Power Forward: Pau Gasol vs. Rashard Lewis
Now this is the most important matchup in the series. If Turkoglu was second in command of the three point cannons, Lewis definitely is running the show. Lewis has been huge for the Magic this postseason and hit a bunch of clutch shots against Cleveland. Lewis has to score early and often, whether it be from beyond the arc or using his size to muscle Gasol around in the paint. If not, it could get ugly for Orlando.
Gasol, on the other hand, has a lot to prove this year in my eyes. In last year's Finals against Boston, Gasol looked timid and came off as soft, something I still believe he is. Orlando's bigs can bully and intimidate the Lakers' bigs if they're physical enough and it could be the flaw in the purple-and-gold armor Orlando can exploit all the way to an title. Gasol must rise to the occasion and play with a physicality that was lacking last year if Los Angeles is to capture its 15th championship.
This matchup is a tight one and while I'd love to cop out and make it a toss up, I'm going to go out on a limb and give it to Lewis until proven otherwise.
Advantage: Orlando
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Center: Andrew Bynum vs. Dwight Howard
Welcome to the big time son.
For Andrew Bynum, his time in the NBA has not been the happiest of times. First there was the feud with Shaquille O'Neal, which turned into an on-the-court altercation. Then there were two major knee injuries and a lot of unfulfilled potential. We've seen flashes of his potential greatness, but nothing consistent and these playoffs have been no different.
Bynum is averaging a mediocre 6.3 points and 3.6 rebounds this postseason and at times has found himself getting a comfy seat next to the towel and water boys for his less-than-stellar play.
Now after all of his struggles, Bynum now has to guard Dwight Howard. He has to take on Superman on the biggest stage in basketball. Does Bynum have the Kryptonite needed to slow down the son of Jor-El? The answer: No.
Howard has been a monster in the postseason, averaging 21.7 points and 15.4 rebounds and should be able to get his at will as long as the people around him keep the defense honest.
This matchup is too easy. Howard in a landslide.
Advantage: Orlando
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The Benches
While a solid starting lineup can always get to the dance, if you don't have any bench production, you'll walk away empty handed (See: 2005 Detroit Pistons). Looking at both teams, there are players that come off the pine who have to make solid contributions to help lead their teams to glory.
For the Lakers, I'm looking at Lamar Odom. Odom can be inconsistent at times, but when he's on his game, he leaves an imprint that usually leads to victory (See: Game 5 against Denver). Odom is almost averaging a double double off the bench (12.0 points and 9.5 rebounds) and if he can give those types of numbers in the Finals, the Lakers will be in good shape.
For the Magic, you have to look at Mickael Pietrus. Pietrus is averaging 10.5 points-per-game and has been making it rain from beyond the arc. Pietrus has hit 33 three pointers this postseason and will also be a key part in guarding Kobe Bryant. Pietrus has to have a big series for Orlando to win the title.
However, Odom has been straight balling this postseason and I'm playing the hot hand.
Advantage: Los Angeles
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The Coaches: Phil Jackson vs. Stan Van Gundy
Just like the bench, a solid coach can get you deep into the playoffs, but a great coach will deliver a title. Phil Jackson is a great coach, there's no disputing that. Nine rings don't lie. Jackson has coached some of the greatest to ever play the game and his knowledge of the triangle offense is second to none. Jackson will be appearing in his 12th Finals and that type of experience is something that you cannot measure.
On the flip side, Van Gundy is making his first Finals appearance and has already been called out by Shaq for being a "master of panic." I can't say that I disagree with The Big Shaqtus for the most part. I believe Van Gundy cost the 2005 Miami Heat team a trip to the Finals with some of the decisions he made against Detroit in the East Finals. I also think that Van Gundy had some moments against the Celtics he wishes he could take back. However, Van Gundy did an incredible coaching job against Cleveland and should be commended for it. If Van Gundy can find a way to exploit the Lakers the way he did Cleveland with the pick-and-roll, it could cause some of the same matchup problems the Cavs experienced.
However, you always go with experience in these cases.
Advantage: Los Angeles
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As you can see, out of the matchups I've outlined, I took Orlando in four out of the seven. Does that mean I'm going to take the Magic to win it all? I guess you'll have to check back on Thursday when I'll be previewing Game 1 of the Finals (hopefully I'll have a snazzy nickname for the series by then) and deliver my prediction.
Until then, enjoy the hours upon hours of worthless programming ESPN will throw our way until the tipoff.
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